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Employment Rebound

The jobless recovery has ended.  The unemployment report came in at 10% versus an estimate of 10.2%.  The major change was an increase in temp hiring in November for the holiday season.

October was flat YoY, but November shows that retailers are much more optimistic than last year

October was flat YoY, but the spike in November shows that retailers are much more optimistic than last year

This is great news for the American worker and 10.2% will most likely be the peak of this recession’s unemployment slump.  The S&P 500 and dollar are up strongly while gold has fallen nearly 2%.

This is a very important report because if the trend continues to be positive, this will give the federal reserve the ability to increase interest rates sooner than most economists expected. That fact is a positive for the dollar’s strength and possibly a negative for US equities.  A “game-changer” if you will.

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2 Responses

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  1. Travis Robinson says

    Temp hiring? Whaaaat? You mean to tell me we’re basically out of the woods?

  2. SurlyTrader says

    I didn’t say things look great for the economy, only that this is probably the most positive news that I have seen in a while. At the very least it says that most companies are done laying people off. It also eases the concern that there is going to be hyperinflation. If there was continuous weakness in the labor market, the fed would be unable to raise interest rates when inflation starts to creep up.

    Don’t misinterpret – I still think the economy is a mess and we have a ton of debt to work through….but at least this kind of news gives some strength to the dollar and should help us move further away from an Argentinian debacle. Did you see gold today? Crushed.

    Besides, no one wants to hear from someone who only reports bad news…I can see the cloud’s silver lining from time to time…

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