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Greece, Portugal, and Ireland Default Probabilities Above 50%

I see headlines like, “Euro Maintains Gain on Greek Debt Optimism” and I am just not sure what everyone else is looking at.   As far as the credit default swap market is concerned, Greece has already defaulted, it is just a matter of when and in what form.  Ireland and Portugal are basically at levels that share a similar fate.  Next question is whether Italy and Spain fall into the hole.

Assuming 40% recovery rate, which might be high for Greece

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Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.

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By SurlyTrader – June 27, 2011

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  1. Tuesday links: return requirements | Abnormal Returns linked to this post on June 28, 2011

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