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Jobs – or the Lack Thereof

Rutgers did a fantastic job of putting the current unemployment plight into perspective in their September report. During the past 20 months between December 2007 and August 2009 the US economy has lost 7,047,000 private sector jobs.  This 7M job deficit under reports the current slump as the US economy adds 1.3M jobs due to growth in the labor force.  By the end of 2009 the total labor deficit will be about 10,000,000 jobs.

To put this into perspective, the 1991-2001 expansion (which was quite robust) created 2.15M private sector jobs per year.  If on January 1, 2010 the United States created a robust 2.15M jobs per year it would take until August 2017 until we were back at 5% unemployment. To further put how optimistic a 2.15M job growth assumption is: during the recovery between November 2001 and December 2007 the US economy created an anemic 1 million jobs per year compared to 2.4M per year between 1982 and 1990 and 2.2M between 1991 and 2001.

Higher Losses and Lower Growth as Time Marches On

Higher Losses and Lower Growth as Time Marches On

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Posted in Economics, Markets.

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2 Responses

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  1. Angela says

    Hi Surly Trader

    Well that just about stuffs it then.
    I am still a bear and staying that way until 2014.

    Maybe then we;ll be on the floor of the markets, those numbers are frightening, houses wont be worth a light by the time we hit 2012.

    Ang

  2. hideo says

    Money printing will sustain the market until it does not. Risk money always flows into the US, hence why China’s stock market has collapsed and ours has not. The market is not the people. The market is about money not people. The average joe on the street has little or no influence on the market. The markets behave according to supply and demand often which is driven by exogenous not just endogenous parameters. The US can rally as the world burns since more uncertainty will draw money to the US not the other way around. There is more chinese money invested in US assets than there are invested in Chinese assets. The US is transparent, accessible and heterogeneous and within boundaries somewhat equitable. There is no way around this. Follow the trend until the end.



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