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Big Brother

My intention for having this blog is to discuss the markets and the economy.  In broaching those two subjects, it is impossible to ignore government actions and their influence on companies and individuals.  I have no interest in sparking political debates, but I do have an interest in the transparency of government actions.  The most recent news surrounds the founder of WikiLeaks, a hotly debated website that seeks to expose all confidential information in pursuit of full transparency.  The site walks a fine line because I would never suggest that information should be release that could put soldiers or individuals into harms way.  That being said, our freedom of speech is a very important right that should not be taken lightly.

This topic has been brought up because a rather interesting set of events has put the WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, on the front pages.  I will not defend any of his actions, but I just want to bring to light what seems rather disturbing.  It has been discussed that the administration has pressured other governments to “consider criminal charges against Julian Assange for his Afghan war leaks“.

If any information has landed into enemy hands that can put innocent soldiers or civilians at risk, then I agree with the decree.  What I do not agree with is the rather fishy rape warrant by Swedish officials which was later canceled.  If the allegations were true, then I have no issue with the warrant, but it seems to be a rather large coincidence in the timing of the warrant along with the withdrawal of the action.  Let us all try to keep everything above board.  The United States is a great nation because of its privilege of freedom, we should strive to keep those freedoms intact.

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Posted in Media, Politics.


We’re Turning Japanese…

Continuing on the them of 1) everyone saying the sky is falling and 2) deflation putting us into a Japanese spiral, I want to take one more look at it:

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 1% in 15 months versus the Bank of Japan’s 51 months and the US cut the rates further to 0% only 2 months later versus the 46 months that the B of J took.  In the language surrounding the cuts, the Bank of Japan was very reluctant whereas the Fed said and continues to say that they will have an accommodating policy until growth is sustained.

The quick actions of the Fed also forced a strongly steep yield curve quickly whereas Japan flattened and went inverted:

The only question is whether the US policy has been or will be strong enough to turn the ship, not whether they tried hard enough.

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Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics.

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The Battle Between (In/De)Flationists

Since the general consensus seems to believe strongly in a the prospect of a double-dip recession, the deflationists are currently winning the hearts and minds of investors. Treasury yields are at all time lows, and the 10 year treasury yield to S&P 500 earnings yield is out of whack. I have been focusing on the relative attractiveness of equities over bonds for some time, and the folks over at Shore Capital made Bloomberg’s chart of the day with the same analysis:

Not as clear of a signal as March 2009, but more of a buy than a sell

At the heart of whether equities look more attractive than bonds is the question of whether inflation or deflation will emerge within the next few years.  If we believe in the Japanese outcome, then the wise have prevailed and corporate bonds will save the day.  On the other hand, if inflation is sparked by renewed growth and the Fed’s fuel on the sparks, then an investment in 10 year treasuries at 2.6% will be an embarrassing trade.  My vote is on the latter.

In Ben Bernanke’s 1999 paper titled “Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?”, Ben outlines a set of monetary actions for the Japanese.  In the introduction, Ben outlines the reasons for the Japanese scenario, all of which sound eerily similar to our own dilemma:

Among the more important monetary-policy mistakes were 1) the failure to tighten policy during 1987-89, despite evidence of growing inflationary pressures, a failure that contributed to the development of the “bubble economy”; 2) the apparent attempt to “prick” the stock market bubble in 1989-91, which helped to induce an asset-price crash; and 3) the failure to ease adequately during the 1991-94 period, as asset prices, the banking system, and the economy declined precipitously.

He follows be going into detail regarding Japan’s deflationary environment throughout the 1990′s and how that indicated that the Japanese monetary policy was not accommodative enough.  He then admits that under current financial systems, as opposed to when countries were under the gold standard:  ”inflation or mild deflation is potentially more dangerous in the modern environment than it was… (because) The modern economy makes much heavier use of credit, especially longer-term credit, than the economies of the nineteenth century”.

The rest of the paper discusses Bernanke’s argument for how the Japanese monetary policy can get Japan out of its liquidity trap.  In what is probably the most enlightening paragraph within the paper, Ben ruffles his “helicopter” feathers:

The general argument that the monetary authorities can increase aggregate demand and prices, even if the nominal interest rate is zero, is as follows: Money, unlike other forms of government debt, pays zero interest and has infinite maturity. The monetary authorities can issue as much money as they like. Hence, if the price level were truly independent of money issuance, then the monetary authorities could use the money they create to acquire indefinite quantities of goods and assets. This is manifestly impossible in equilibrium. Therefore money issuance must ultimately raise the price level, even if nominal interest rates are bounded at zero. This is an elementary argument, but, as we will see, it is quite corrosive of claims of monetary impotence.

Increase aggregate demand by increasing the money supply and purchasing assets.  It is as simple as that.  This will also destroy the currency which will fuel the attractiveness of goods in the currency:

Indeed, as I will discuss, I believe that a policy of aggressive depreciation of the yen would by itself probably suffice to get the Japanese economy moving again.

After reading the 10 year old academic paper by Ben, you should realize that he has the resolve and tools to get inflation sparked in the United States.  The only wild card is if the Federal Reserve’s power is limited by congress or if Ben Bernanke is removed from office.  Both of those outcomes seem unlikely to me.  As for whether inflation is good, well that is an argument for another day.   The only question I have is why anyone in his/her right mind would want to lock in 10 year treasury yields today at 2.6%?

You can read Ben’s full paper at your leisure: Bernanke - Case of Self-Induced Paralysis

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Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics.

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Beware of the “Sure Thing”

In the markets, I generally follow a contrarian philosophy.  When an investment thesis becomes common knowledge, I likely want to do the opposite or stay out of the market entirely.  This was certainly the case when I was bombarded with relentless radio, internet, e-mail, and television advertisements educating me about the importance of protecting my wealth by buying gold.  I agree with the long-term philosophy; that a large increase in the money supply should result in a long-term destruction of the dollar.  The problem that I had was that buying gold was *the* right answer right now.  Nothing is ever that simple and if Joe and Nancy down the street know about it along with everyone else who seemingly wants to flaunt their superior investment knowledge, then I want to walk the other way.

Gold is a fear asset.  It can run up tremendously and it can crash spectacularly.  If I am looking at preserving my wealth, then I want hard assets out of the spotlight of the media: silver, land, real estate, grains, oil and other tangible goods.   The gold example is merely setting the stage for my main item of interest.  For the last few weeks it has become common knowledge that the economy is slowing, will enter into a double-dip recession and the United States will most certainly follow the path of Japan’s lost decades.  It’s as simple as that, so buy as many bonds as possible today because rates will surely be lower tomorrow.  Therefore, $33B flows out of equities this year, $136B flows into taxable bonds and Johnson & Johnson offers a 10 year bond at a 3.15% yield (lowest corporate 10 year yield on record) while their stock earns a 3.7% dividend yield.

What should send a shiver down everyone’s spine is just how negative most economists  have become.  These are the same economists who were mostly upbeat going through the financial crisis.  The New York Times ran a good article titled, “Economic Pessimists Gain Cachet“.  The economists are only outputting what is desired from their clients – an even more dire prediction than the guy who made it to the front page of the Wall Street Journal last week. It is called the confirmation bias, to seek out information to support our preconceived position or opinion, the stuff of financial (bond) bubbles. Things might not be all that rosy, but I certainly take pause when our certain demise becomes common knowledge.

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Posted in Economics, Educational, Markets, Media.

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Noteworthy News – August 16, 2010

Economy:

Why do I expect the unemployment rate to increase? – CalculatedRisk

Turbocharged Germany – Economist

The prophets of doom warn that the US economy is on the brink of a double-dip recession – The Sydney Morning Herald

Federal Reserve Official Sees Chance of a New Boom-and-Bust Cycle – New York Times

Markets:

Bonds Sneeze, but Is It Contagious? – Barron’s

Mortgage rates hit fresh lows on soft U.S. economy – Reuters

Global Economic Fears Roil Markets – Wall Street Journal

Dollar Index Breaks Longest String of Weekly Losses Since 2004 on Economy – Bloomberg

Politics:

Democrats Bet on the Politics of Social Security – US News

Will ‘tax the rich’ save the economy? – CNN Money

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Posted in Economics, Markets, Media, Politics.


Lehman Bankrupt from Rumors?

The Lehman Bankruptcy proceedings are taking a dramatic turn with accusations that rumors helped speed along the troubled investment bank’s collapse.  Lehman has requested that the New York hedge fund Och-Ziff “should respond to its demand for information as it investigates investors who may have helped push the bank into collapse by selling short its shares”.  The alleged rumors suggested that Lehman hid its leverage within external hedge funds which it ultimately controlled.  How this soap opera is resolved is anyone’s guess, but I think it provides an interesting reflection point.

The fact is that when there are troubled financial companies, hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers smell the blood in the water and try to act as opportunistically as possible.  The investment world is the guttural carnation of capitalism with all of its selfishness, egotism, and cannibalism.   It is well known that many investors copied Long Term Capital Management’s investment strategies in trying to replicate their success.  It is less well known that those same investors puked the positions and then they went against them by taking an opposite position under the premise that when LTCM would be liquidated, the prices would go even further in their favor….

When Amaranth had massive losses from its natural gas positions, it is rumored that Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel, called the heads of Amaranth and threatened to push natural gas prices against them even further unless they sold out to Citadel at rock bottom prices.  Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan and Ken Griffin ultimately profited from that transaction.  I wonder how far they pushed the prices before they made that call?

The bottom line is that those with few ethical standards and desires for fat bonuses will always prey on whatever situation could make them outsized profits.  The only question is whether the reward compensates for the legal risk.  The interesting aspect of this last financial crisis is that the OTC markets provided oodles of opportunities for corrupt actions.  The headlines have hit on predatory lending and bad securitized CDO transactions.  What has not been explored is the profit motives in the demise of companies like Lehman, Bear Stearns, Countrywide, Wachovia,AIG, etc.  The OTC markets provide a venue to make completely opaque bets on the viability of companies while having outsized control of that same viability.  The language surrounding Och-Ziff and Lehman rumors is old-hat.   Unethical asset managers have always been interested in spreading rumors to move stock prices.  Let’s take it into the 21st century – what about being a controlling stakeholder in a company but having negative economic interest in that same company through the use of derivatives?  If you own 20% of the outstanding shares and/or outstanding bonds, what is to stop you from buying put options on twice that amount or buying CDS protection on two times the company’s outstanding debt?  The answer is nothing….and no one would know except for your counterparties.  I am wondering if or when a story of that magnitude will emerge.  Imagine having a majority voting right in a company, intimate knowledge of their operations and financials alongside a negative economic position on that very same company…

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Posted in Conspiracy, Derivatives, Markets, Media.

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How Stressed is your State?

The Associated Press published a rather fun (depending how you look at it) interactive map which shows how economically stressed different counties and states are.  It seems like the middle of the country has been sheltered from the brunt of the darkness…

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Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics.


The Fed Feeds the Market

The equity markets were looking for “accommodative” language coming from the FOMC and they definitely got it.  The Federal Reserve stated that they will reinvest principal payments on their current MBS holdings into longer dated treasury securities.  This is generally considered an extension of the Fed’s “quantitative easing”.  If you do not understand quantitative easing please refer to my previous article “Quantitative Easing and Walking on the Edge of a Razor“.  If you still do not understand, don’t feel badly because it doesn’t make any sense.  The federal reserve basically funds the Treasury.  One arm of the government feeds the other arm and we suddenly have a perpetual motion machine.  The premise is that by buying securities, the Federal Reserve creates demand on the longer part of the interest rate curve which lowers rates for all of the debtors that need to raise debt.  But hold on, the government is buying its own debt….  That’s like you purchasing your own mortgage note.  The difference is that the federal reserve prints its own money, so they are able to purchase their securities with money out of thin air.  That money permeates the financial system because dollars end up in investors hands as the treasuries or MBS securities that the investors were holding were purchased by the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars.  The Fed effectively puts more liquidity into the financial system.

Still, it doesn’t make any sense.  By printing money to buy its own debt, the government should effectively be creating inflation with the increased dollars in the system.  The threat of inflation should increase the nominal yields of the bonds that they are purchasing and thereby negate what they set out to do in the first place, which was to decrease interest rates.  All hand waving aside, it does seem to work for a short period of time and it most likely has to do with the signal that this action provides for the financial markets.  It says loud and clear that, “I, Ben Bernanke, will do whatever is in my physical power to keep this system afloat!”  Our boy Ben even literally made this statement when he said that the Fed was “prepared to take further policy actions as needed” to support an economy hobbled by 9.5% unemployment.   This means that the reinvestment of principal payments back into treasuries is only a first step and that if the economy sputters we could see the Federal Reserve ignite the system with trillions of dollars as needed because deflation is currently our public enemy number one.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.

Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee’s ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee’s policy objectives.

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Posted in Economics, Markets, Politics.

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Downward Grind on the VIX

If you are short, the poor payroll numbers on Friday and downward pressure on the S&P 500 might have seemed like the turning point.   As the day wore on, the market continued to move upward and close the week with a small gain.  From my vantage point, the rally is still intact.  Despite some ominously low interest rates (2.8% Ten Year?!) and some negative economic news, the technicals still look positive.

The VIX broke through its 200 day MA, but went on to post a bearish outside day by the close

The upward trajectory might be unsustainable, but for now the path of least resistance is upward

If you are frustrated with the current trading, I suggest you take a step back.  August is the month of the “holiday” in Europe and the time when kids go back to school.  Trading should be light and uneventful through the month, but my feeling is that the choppiness will return in September.  You can still be right, but right at the wrong time.

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Posted in Markets, Trading Ideas.

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Noteworthy News – August 9, 2010

Economy:

ECB’s Trichet Says Euro-Area Economy Stronger Than Expected - Bloomberg

Jobless Claims Raise Doubts About Economy – ABC News

2 Top Economists Differ Sharply on Risk of Deflation – New York Times

Japan’s Economic Stagnation Is Creating a Nation of Lost Youth - DailyFinance

More Illinois families than ever receiving food stamps because of recession – Quincy Herald Whig

Among those aged 18 to 29, 28.4% are underemployed – Gallup

Markets:

How Canada’s Dollar Got Ahead, and Left America Behind-Esquire

Market Data Firm Spots the Tracks of Bizarre Robot Traders - The Atlantic

CREDIT MARKETS: Bonds Adjust After Weaker Jobless Claims Report – Wall Street Journal

Dollar Will Appreciate as Global Economy Resumes Its Slump, Taylor Says – Bloomberg

Corporate Bond Markets In High Gear As Double-Dip Fears Fade – Wall Street Journal

Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014 – Bloomberg

Politics:

The Politics Of Regulatory Reform – Forbes

Bill Gates: Politics can get you depressed - CNET

Immigration politics: GOP considers 14th Amendment – Examiner

Banks:

Goldman Sachs finds a big loophole: The company reportedly has figured out how to dodge key parts of the financial reform bill – MSN Money

A UBS insider blows the whistle on Swiss banking -GlobalPost

Proprietary traders may find hedge fund life harder - Reuters

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Posted in Economics, Media, Politics.



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DISCLAIMER The commentary on this blog is not meant to be taken as an investment advice. The author is not a registered investment adviser. There is no substitute for your own due diligence. Please be aware that investing is inherently a risky business and if you chose to follow any of the advice on this site, then you are accepting the risks associated with that investment. The Author may have also taken positions in the stocks that are being discussed and the author may change his position at any time without warning.

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