I am not a devoted practitioner of technical analysis, but I do try to look at some bigger barriers and setups as I impose my own fundamental view. With that in mind, I would like to say that it definitely has not worked for what seemed like a slam dunk. The S&P 500 had an impressive rally that started from the low on March 9th from 666 all the way up to 956. The 950 level seemed to be a strong barrier as it tested it repeatedly in June. It seemed as if the S&P lost steam between May and early July, setting up a nice two month head an shoulder pattern with a neckline at about 900. The market seemingly roared through that on July 7th, but could not seem to break much below the 200 day moving average. We are currently roaring back upward on a vertical trajectory that seems to imply another test of the 950 level.
So technicals aside, what happened? Goldman Sachs reported strong earnings and Intel had a strong showing. My thoughts on Goldman are known, but I am a little skeptical of Intel. How is it that Intel has such a rosy view of the future but Dell had a dismal outlook? Oh, and Merrill said the recession was over…that could not be stated in their benefit could it?