Let us all get one thing straight, this is an investment led recovery. Asset prices have rallied strongly from their March 09 lows and corporations have done a phenomenal job of quickly cutting costs and returning to profitability. The casualties reside with the US Government and the US consumer. With an unemployment rate of 10%, housing prices off their highs by more than 30%, and equity markets still 30% away from their highs the average American is feeling the squeeze. Loan delinquencies and defaults are still reaching new highs. The data does not lie:
According to Lender Processing Services 7.2 million mortgages are behind on their payments! In addition to the current foreclosure supply and those people debating upon making their strategic defaults on their mortgages because they are upside down, vacancy rates are extremely high and rents are dropping.
So what does continued delinquencies, foreclosures and vacancies mean? It means that housing prices will be near the bottom for a long time to come as inventory is reduced and the unemployment situation slowly gets better. If you are holding onto your house with the hope that the price will rebound, you are holding onto a false dream. The only thing stabilizing factor currently in housing prices is a nice rebate check for first time home buyers and those who take advantage of the upgrade offer. It will be interesting to see what happens this coming summer and fall.